Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Though it remains hard to imagine that a Republican-controlled Congress will deny Donald Trump much of anything he wants at this point, the president’s megabill is in some peril in the Senate as of this morning. Over the weekend, Majority Leader John Thune’s margin for error narrowed when North Carolina’s Thom Tillis announced he would not run for reelection, neutering Trump’s threats to sponsor a primary challenge against him. Tillis combined that announcement with harsh criticism of the bill, particularly its Medicaid cuts, so everyone concluded that meant two Republican votes against it, since Rand Paul has long opposed it for inadequate spending cuts.

Attention then shifted to Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, the closest things the Senate still has to moderate Republicans, and the two senators who with John McCain deep-sixed Trump’s first budget bill back in 2017, a rare defeat for the 45th president that year. Thune & Co. focused on Murkowski, aware of her acute sensitivities to the needs of her state, which is notoriously dependent on federal resources and policies. As the Senate began the lengthy process of debating and voting on amendments to the bill, its managers put together a sweet deal for Murkowski giving Alaska a significant exemption from especially ruinous SNAP (food stamps) cuts and a path to boosting Medicaid payments. Then, in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, as Thune prepared to pull the plug on debate when he had 50 votes (with Vice-President J.D. Vance standing by to break any tie), the Senate parliamentarian struck, deeming the two special treats for Murkowski noncompliant with budget rules. Republicans managed to create a workaround that preserved much of the SNAP break for Alaska, but not, as of now, one involving Medicaid.

And so, at this very moment, the fate of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is in the hands of Murkowski, perhaps his least favorite Republican senator, one he unsuccessfully tried to purge when she last ran for reelection in 2022. Thune and his lieutenants are furiously negotiating with the holdout, and their ability to turn Alaska frowns upside down on the bill may determine its immediate fate. At the same time, there is likely renewed pressure on Collins, whose main concern over the megabill is Medicaid cuts, to vote aye, but she’s up for reelection next year in a state carried by Kamala Harris, so she would absolutely love to vote no. Thune even made an overnight run at flipping Paul, but his demands for changes in the bill would probably be too drastic to consider.

If Murkowski gives the bill a thumbs-down, it’s back to the drawing board for Thune and Team Trump. And even if they do get the bill through the Senate, growing hostility from various factions in the House (ranging from moderates upset about Medicaid and SNAP to high-tax-state SALT militants, and most of all, deficit hawks who view the Senate bill as far worse than its House predecessor) threatens the rubber-stamping currently planned for later in the week. Meeting a self-imposed July 4 deadline to get the bill to Trump’s desk would almost certainly require a personal effort by the president to “jam” the House with a take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum backed up by the kind of threats only Donald Trump can make.

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