Photo: Tom Brenner/The Washington Post/Getty Images

How long will John Fetterman last in the United States Senate?

That is, above everything else, the operative question right now. Since suffering a stroke in 2022, Fetterman’s mental and physical health has deteriorated, according to his current and former staffers. He routinely misses votes and doesn’t appear to be performing his basic Senate duties. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s editorial board recently rebuked the Pennsylvania senator, telling its readers that “it’s time for Fetterman to serve Pennsylvanians, or step away.” Few Democrats have rushed to his defense — it doesn’t help that Fetterman, on the issues of immigration and Israel, has become sharply combative with his own party, gravitating to hawkish Republicans.

Fetterman has said he will not resign, and he doesn’t really have any incentive to leave. Senators who have been more incapacitated, like the late Dianne Feinstein, have continued to serve even as their cognitive functions fall off precipitously. It will not be a glorious few years, but Fetterman can persist until his term ends in 2028. It’s not as if his fellow Democrats will try to expel him.

For now, Fetterman will be most appreciated by Republicans, because he’ll cross party lines and he’ll be vulnerable come reelection time. It’s hard to remember now, but the pre-stroke Fetterman was a true national star, the sort of populist rural Democrat who seemed destined to run for president in the near future. Those days are gone for good. Progressives revile Fetterman, but they also feel burned by Joe Biden and do not want to risk another struggling standard-bearer in an important election. There’s a reason few Democratic elected officials are rallying, openly, around Fetterman: They know he’s not a long-term political solution for them.

Enter Conor Lamb. The former congressman was a resistance star during the first Trump term, flipping a tough district north of Pittsburgh. His political future seemed bright until he ran against Fetterman in the 2022 Senate primary. It was a disastrous campaign for him: Fetterman consolidated both Establishment and progressive support, and Lamb, despite his relative youth, seemed like the candidate of yesteryear. Fetterman romped to victory, and Lamb’s time in Congress was over.

Now Lamb’s back, barnstorming across Pennsylvania and rallying voters who are furious at Democrats for not fighting back more aggressively against Donald Trump. Undoubtedly Lamb, who is still only 40, is thinking about a Senate race in three years. He has said openly he is holding public town halls because Fetterman mostly refuses to do them. He has knocked Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania’s Republican senator, for ducking town halls as well. McCormick and Fetterman did recently appear together in a forum moderated by Fox News where they found common ground on several issues, including Israel and border security.

For now, Lamb has said he isn’t running for an elected office, but it’s difficult to see how he passes up a chance at a rematch with Fetterman in the 2028 Democratic primary. The dynamics of that race would be an inversion of 2022’s; Lamb would be running to Fetterman’s left, promising a straight Democratic vote and firm opposition to MAGA Republicans. On Israel, he could hew further to the conventional Democratic line, which is to back the Jewish state but condemn the carnage in Gaza. He would fundraise well and pull support from the progressive groups that fell so hard behind Fetterman three years ago. The race, though, would probably be about fitness as much as ideology: Lamb could tell voters he would show up for them, in both the halls of the Senate and the towns of Pennsylvania, and that might be enough for him to win.

National Democrats — the heavy-hitting fundraisers, the prominent politicians — would probably abandon Fetterman for Lamb. Fetterman has few Washington allies, and his performance there has inspired little confidence. Fetterman could deride Lamb as a D.C. insider, but it’s unclear how much weight that attack would carry. If this race were held tomorrow, Lamb would probably win it, and maybe comfortably. Perhaps Fetterman, in the next few years, begins to recover, becomes a more vigorous senator, and strengthens his own political position. For now, however, he is one of the only Senate Democrats obviously vulnerable to a primary challenge. And if you ask most Democratic politicians and operatives who they prefer heading into a tough general election in a presidential year, they’ll take Lamb over Fetterman. They really wouldn’t think twice.

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